Predictions
Buy Yes or No on an outcome — an election, a match, a price by a date. A share pays $1 if its side wins and nothing if it loses. Two sources, one tab.
How a prediction market works#
Each question has outcomes; each outcome has a Yes and a No side traded between people in a book. The price of a share, from 0 to $1, reads as the market’s chance: 29¢ is about 29%. If your side wins, each share pays $1; if it loses, $0. You can sell before the end at the price of the moment. There is no leverage and no liquidation.
The chance RXN shows is the middle of the book when the spread is at most 10 points (10¢); otherwise it says “Thin market”, and with no book it shows the last trade as a trade. It is a reading of the market’s price, not a forecast and not advice.
HIP-4: Hyperliquid’s outcome markets#
HIP-4 outcomes trade on Hyperliquid itself, in your own account, with the same wallet and the same RXN key as perps. Categories as Hyperliquid files them: crypto, sports, macro, markets. Shares are bought from your spot USDC and sit among your balances; when the spot balance is short, the ticket offers to move USDC there with one signature.
- RXN fee: 0.02% on an order that may take, 0 on post-only.
- Hyperliquid: no fee on a buy; a sale, and a winning settlement, pay Hyperliquid’s spot fee as a sale that takes.
- Settlement is automatic, in your account, when Hyperliquid settles the outcome.
AGG: Polymarket, Kalshi and more#
Through AGG (agg.market) RXN shows events from Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict, Myriad, Novig, ProphetX and other venues in the same cards. Each card says where it settles — “Settles on Polymarket · via AGG” — and the venue’s own rules are behind “i”.
- Sign in with your wallet — a signature of words (SIWE), no transaction.
- Fund your AGG account — AGG gives your wallet its own deposit address for USDC on the networks it names (Arbitrum and Base first).
- Buy — type the amount; RXN gets a live quote: shares, the price, what you win, and every fee. Review, then confirm.
- Withdraw — only to the wallet you signed in with. Withdrawals stay open even if trading is switched off.
One AGG order may spend at most $25, fees included, with slippage up to 2%.
Fees#
| RXN | Others | |
|---|---|---|
| HIP-4 buy | 0.02% (0 on post-only) | Hyperliquid: none on a buy |
| HIP-4 sale or winning settlement | 0.02% on a sale; 0 on a settlement | Hyperliquid’s spot fee as a sale that takes |
| AGG buy | 0.5% — on $25: $0.12 | The venue’s own fee, gas and any bridge, shown in the quote |
| AGG sale | 0 | The venue’s own fee |
Risks#
A share can lose all its value. Books can be thin, and the price can move fast as news comes. AGG’s venues settle by their own rules and on their own chains; RXN does not run them and cannot reverse a result. Where prediction markets are restricted for you, you are responsible for following your local rules.
RXN is software, not advice. Nothing here promises a profit. Trading perps can lose you more than you expect.